Ali Salmanpour
Siamak ShokouhiFard
Hatef Hazeri Niri
Abstract
One of the major objectives of any economic system, achieving high and stable economic growth rates, inflation, full employment a fair distribution of income in the country. As a result, decision
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Ali Salmanpour
Siamak ShokouhiFard
Hatef Hazeri Niri
Abstract
One of the major objectives of any economic system, achieving high and stable economic growth rates, inflation, full employment a fair distribution of income in the country. As a result, decision-making and reducing investment time horizon is shorter latest Blnd¬Mdt and other factors mentioned. Inflationary uncertainty is also considered as one of the costs of inflation. Inflationary uncertainty leads to the deviation of economic decisions in the field of production. In these difficult circumstances,and the uncertainty of future decisions, decisions that affect economic agents. The focus of this study was to investigate the effect of inflation on economic growth Na¬Atmynany Iran. In this research, hypothesis testing and multivariate linear regression model VAR-GARCH-M method to analyze the data in the period 1347 to 1401 is used. In calculate the uncertainty, using modeling ARMA (Box - Jenkins) to determine the order of the action. In general, the results of this study shows the negative impact of inflation uncertainty on economic growth in the long term. Although this effect was positive in the short term, it has unusual effects on the economic components in the long term. In other words, the stability of inflationary uncertainty in the long term also increases inflation. Other results obtained from long-term relationships indicate the positive effect of money volume and exchange rate fluctuations on economic growth. Also, the result obtained from the Granger causality test also shows that the causality relationship is from inflation uncertainty to inflation, so that the opposite relationship is not significant.
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